Strategic Doubt

The Money in the Little Man

Camped in the middle of nowhere, an archaeologist is approached by a stranger offering to sell a curious and sinister specimen. Though it sounds like the fiction of H.P. Lovecraft, it was an experience recounted by naturalist and sublime science writer Loren Eiseley.

Drones and UFOs: An Incomplete History [Part Two]

Note: this is the second part of a longer piece on the history of drones and UFOs. Read part one here. Around the time that Luis Elizondo wrote emails requesting declassification of videos in 2017, the drone budget of ISIS was already about $1.1 million dollars. That money allowed

Drones and UFOs: An Incomplete History [Part One]

In recent years, drones have become a more prevalent part of UFO discourse. The topic comes up frequently because drones are a quickly developing class of technology that can be confusing to observers. In addition to becoming more sophisticated they are also increasingly accessible. Drones can maneuver in abrupt and

Skyfort Speaks

Several weeks ago Tucker Carlson aired a segment about UFOs that caught my attention. A few friends asked me to help identify documents referenced in the clip. It was easy to understand why people were curious: Carlson claimed that the documents prove that "the advanced tic tac UFO has been

journalism

UFOs as a Stress Test of Modern Journalism

There are two basic tasks in journalism – gathering news and making sense of news. When an investigative journalist finds documents or carefully interviews a witness they are "gathering news" by developing facts and evidence. When a columnist or opinion writer offers framing and analysis on a subject, they are engaged

Conflict and Contradiction Over Luis Elizondo's Role in AATIP and UAPTF

The question of Luis Elizondo's potential involvement with the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force (UAPTF) was raised last week in a virtual press conference, published by Mystery Wire. Elizondo commented extensively about a pending report to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence regarding UAP. His remarks prompted participants on the

UAPTF Responds To Disinformation Concerns

There has been considerable controversy since Jeremy Corbell published video and photos associated with the 2019 USS Kidd incident earlier this month. In an unusual departure from a fairly tight-lipped public affairs strategy, the Department of Defense authenticated the video and photos but provided few other details in a statement

'Make No Comment': The Silence of the Department of Defense on UAP

Marc Cecotti recently published this striking document from a FOIA disclosure regarding the public affairs management of the UAP/UFO issue. In brief, the document is between public relations elements within the Department of Defense. Here Jeff Jones, NAVSAFECEN Deputy Director for Safety Promotions, is seeking clarification about a point

reflections

Clarifying vs Persuading: Learning from Szilard's "Voice of the Dolphins"

My friend Zac Cichy asked an interesting question on Twitter, as he often does: Serious question: When the UFO community voices frustration at scientists for not looking, what is it they want scientists to be looking at? What can scientists do, really? Testimony and compressed videos are not something they

History of Ideas

Many Worlds, Or None

He was a small man with conspicuous shadows under his eyes. Years of calculation had saturated him deeply in the habit of counting and inference. Those years gave him a seeming magical gift: he could accurately estimate almost anything. No matter how impossible or strange the idea, he could calculate

data

Revisiting Hynek's Strangeness-Probability Curve: Analysis of 341 Case Reports

Finding signal in the noise of UFO case reports using a modern computational approach to an old idea: Hynek's strangeness-probability curve.

philosophy

The self-erasing idea

Some ideas have a curious property: they destroy themselves.

data

Analyzing The Nearly Lost Hatch Database: 18,123 case files

When Jacques Vallée described the history of UFO data collection efforts to a French government group, he prominently mentioned a name that is purposely obscure even to UFOLogists: Larry Hatch

What Does Russia Know About UAP? Probably Not Much.

UFOs have returned to the national conversation in the past several years. That conversation has often invoked national security concerns. The recent passage of an omnibus spending package included a Senate request for an unclassified report on the issue. The language reflects palpable anxiety about potential technological developments among competitors.

Saying Goodbye to Twitter (and Hello Again Shortly After)

Note: I'm back on Twitter here https://twitter.com/strategic_doubt. A few friends asked me to rejoin to let people know about new posts. I'm doing my damnedest to stay away from it except for that purpose, and to discuss stories that are actually important. The piece still stands.

uap

Answering "Who Else Knows"

To find out more about Luis Elizondo's resignation, I contacted him for an interview. He graciously agreed. I asked him directly, what did you mean by "who else knows?" He responded at length.

How the Safest Bet on Bipartisanship Became A Trap

Early in the morning after the 2020 election it was clear there was not going to be a big blue wave in the Senate. Instead, the arithmetic looked right for a Georgia runoff battle for a 50-50 split in the upper house: I think there is a scenario where if

A TV Guide to Modern UFOlogy That No One Asked For

Popular culture is a shared language to negotiate some kind of sense out of our reality. UFOs have long been part of the warp and weft of television and movies. Usually, they have been symbols of the mysterious and transcendent. To some, they stand in for nearly eschatological hopes; for

intelligence

Who Else Knows?

The 2017 release of "UFO" videos raised eyebrows and consumed a few short-lived news cycles before largely falling in between the cracks of the national news media. Perhaps this shouldn't be surprising. The public confirmation of a government UFO program has been one story among many bizarre headlines in the

policy

Blurred Vision: UAP Are Not All One Thing

National security decision making has always been hard, but it is becoming harder at a superlinear rate.

policy

What if Christopher Mellon succeeds?

Christopher Mellon has a plan. As former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and former minority staff director of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI), he understands national security in a way that few do. Mellon has participated in intelligence issues both from an operations perspective in the

policy

How Will the Air Force Fare Under the Gaze of the Senate?

Imagine this scenario: the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) sits before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI) to deliver a report on advanced aerial threats.

science fiction

“Chains of the Sea”: The 1973 Science Fiction Novella Influencing TTSA

Former head of the DOD's AATIP program shared a surprising reference to an obscure 1973 science fiction novel.

policy

Checkmate or Gambit: Christopher Mellon and the Senate UAP Report

An analysis of the role of Christoper Mellon as architect of the 2020 Senate Intelligence request for a UAP report

policy

Analysis of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence UAP News

In the early summer of 2020, the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence published an unexpected request for a report on "unidentified aerial phenomena."