Strategic Doubt

'Make No Comment': The Silence of the Department of Defense on UAP

Marc Cecotti recently published this striking document from a FOIA disclosure regarding the public affairs management of the UAP/UFO issue. In brief, the document is between public relations elements within the Department of Defense. Here Jeff Jones, NAVSAFECEN Deputy Director for Safety Promotions, is seeking clarification about a point

reflections

Clarifying vs Persuading: Learning from Szilard's "Voice of the Dolphins"

My friend Zac Cichy asked an interesting question on Twitter, as he often does: Serious question: When the UFO community voices frustration at scientists for not looking, what is it they want scientists to be looking at? What can scientists do, really? Testimony and compressed videos are not something they

History of Ideas

Many Worlds, Or None

He was a small man with conspicuous shadows under his eyes. Years of calculation had saturated him deeply in the habit of counting and inference. Those years gave him a seeming magical gift: he could accurately estimate almost anything. No matter how impossible or strange the idea, he could calculate

fiction

The image making spider

The image making spider is busy tonight. It has spindly mechanical legs that wobble uncertainly, and wavering arms that pull on invisible threads. Watch it amble through a dark alley, occasionally pausing and shaking, its articulations stuttering as if coughing. Next it will emit a spray of phosphorescent material on

data

Revisiting Hynek's Strangeness-Probability Curve: Analysis of 341 Case Reports

Finding signal in the noise of UFO case reports using a modern computational approach to an old idea: Hynek's strangeness-probability curve.

philosophy

The self-erasing idea

Some ideas have a curious property: they destroy themselves.

data

Analyzing The Nearly Lost Hatch Database: 18,123 case files

When Jacques Vallée described the history of UFO data collection efforts to a French government group, he prominently mentioned a name that is purposely obscure even to UFOLogists: Larry Hatch

What Does Russia Know About UAP? Probably Not Much.

UFOs have returned to the national conversation in the past several years. That conversation has often invoked national security concerns. The recent passage of an omnibus spending package included a Senate request for an unclassified report on the issue. The language reflects palpable anxiety about potential technological developments among competitors.

ephemera

December Ephemera

Things have started to grow a bit beyond the blog, including participating in the creative endeavors of a few friends. There are also some creative odds and ends that don't really fit elsewhere, like podcast appearances and little bits of writing. MeasureCongressI'm experimenting with a new concept: a data-driven project

presidential history project

Will John Adams Ever Be Able to Live With Himself? (Part 1)

Recently I developed a harebrained idea: why not read a biography of every U.S. president, in chronological order? I'm embarking on a weird project: I'd like to try to read a decent single volume account of every US president, in order. I pretty recently read

Saying Goodbye to Twitter (and Hello Again Shortly After)

Note: I'm back on Twitter here https://twitter.com/strategic_doubt. A few friends asked me to rejoin to let people know about new posts. I'm doing my damnedest to stay away from it except for that purpose, and to discuss stories that are actually important. The piece still stands.

uap

Reaction to "‘Fast Movers’ and Transmedium Vehicles"

Tim McMillan's latest in The Debrief offers several important new pieces of information: There have been extremely high level briefings on UAP with the Department of Defense, to include the Secretary of the NavyIt appears that information regarding UAP incidents is circulating very widely within the intelligence communityThere have been

uap

Answering "Who Else Knows"

To find out more about Luis Elizondo's resignation, I contacted him for an interview. He graciously agreed. I asked him directly, what did you mean by "who else knows?" He responded at length.

How the Safest Bet on Bipartisanship Became A Trap

Early in the morning after the 2020 election it was clear there was not going to be a big blue wave in the Senate. Instead, the arithmetic looked right for a Georgia runoff battle for a 50-50 split in the upper house: I think there is a scenario where if

personal

Magnetar

I got sick in what was supposed to be the closing chapter of my doctorate. At first, my spine and hip hurt. Later, my eyes started to get excruciatingly irritated and red. Then it became hard to walk and to stay awake. Stubborn, I only went to the doctor when

A TV Guide to Modern UFOlogy That No One Asked For

Popular culture is a shared language to negotiate some kind of sense out of our reality. UFOs have long been part of the warp and weft of television and movies. Usually, they have been symbols of the mysterious and transcendent. To some, they stand in for nearly eschatological hopes; for

intelligence

Who Else Knows?

The 2017 release of "UFO" videos raised eyebrows and consumed a few short-lived news cycles before largely falling in between the cracks of the national news media. Perhaps this shouldn't be surprising. The public confirmation of a government UFO program has been one story among many bizarre headlines in the

reflections

Our Lady of Computation

I never got to meet the man I replaced; he was already deployed to Iraq. Our crowded department meant that my predecessor's workspace was claimed before my first day. I was given a plank jammed between two racks in the back of a lab.

fiction

Her Many Names

Art Credit: From the film "El sueño de Malinche" directed by Gonzalo Suárez, illustrated by Pablo Auladell We do not know the first of her many names. Her birth language was really two languages: one for common people, and one for nobility and priests. She understood both. Learning the high

diplomacy

The International Stage

Charting the course from the Senate to the world stage. How will TTSA's Chris Mellon and Elizondo architect alliances on the international stage?

intelligence

Nobody But Us, But For How Long?

What does China know about UAP? What happens when American "Nobody But Us" becomes "Fear Of Missing Out"

policy

Blurred Vision: UAP Are Not All One Thing

National security decision making has always been hard, but it is becoming harder at a superlinear rate.

senate

Intelligence Authorization Bill Merged with National Defense Authorization, Passes Senate

Yesterday (July 23, 2020) the Senate passed the National Defense Authorization bill (NDAA) on a 86-14 vote. The closely watched "Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021" was merged within the NDAA.

policy

What if Christopher Mellon succeeds?

Christopher Mellon has a plan. As former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and former minority staff director of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI), he understands national security in a way that few do. Mellon has participated in intelligence issues both from an operations perspective in the

policy

How Will the Air Force Fare Under the Gaze of the Senate?

Imagine this scenario: the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) sits before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI) to deliver a report on advanced aerial threats.